Breksa: unpredictable market dynamics

Experts expect this morning almost unthinkable news. By all indications, the number of Britons who voted "for", "Breksa" crossed needed to win the critical level. It seems that Britain has voted for a way out of the EU. The markets have been almost completely sure of the opposite of the referendum outcome, especially given the likelihood based on market positions, so they had to quickly readjust to the situation and change their strategy. Deal with the rate on the "Breksa" provoked the first results of the referendum of Sunderland. In minutes, GBP / USD fell from 1.4877 to 1.3229 (the lowest level since September 1985 !!), losing more than 10%, but still recovered subsequently to 1.36. Other assets have responded to the script "Breksita" as expected: most fell NOK, EUR and SEK, currency three largest UK trade partners, while valyuty- "asylum", including the JPY and USD, are vyrosli.EUR / GBP rebounded from 0.7601 to 0.8196 - it seems that the markets are now considered "Breksa" as a negative event for GBP, but we believe that when the dust settles, traders will realize that in fact the exit of Britain from the EU in the first place is unfavorable for the euro, and will update the short positions in the single currency.

Gold has made a U-turn at the support level $ 1251 per ounce and reached the level of $ 1309 on strong demand. We can expect further growth. It is interesting that, despite the lack of liquidity and disruption due to volatility, the currency markets are kept pretty well. Given that the stock markets are not ready for such a result, we expect a significant price jumps today.

In Asia stock indices showed a sharp decline, the Nikkei lost more than 8%, while the Topix fell by 7.68%. Share indexes in Mainland China reacted to the news surprisingly restrained; Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite lost only 1.33%, respectively, and 1.02%. S P / ASX Index dipped 3,21%, NZX dropped to 2.25%. Futures on Britain's FTSE 100 stock index plummeted nearly 8% after investors rushed to win back the consequences of the "Breksita" for British companies. Currencies of developing countries in Asia also showed a decline due to the global spread of non-risk transactions; most poteryaliMYR, KRW and SGD. Given a moderate impact on the UK economy of Asia, we expect a further decline in Asian assets will be organic.

EUR / CHF dropped to 1.0623 (3.5%), but subsequently stabilized in the region of 1.07. It is clear that the SNB will closely monitor developments. If the single currency will begin to respond to the possible collapse of the European Union and the European monetary and economic union, we can expect an active inflow of capital in CHF, which will cause the SNB to take measures to reduce the negative effects of growth on the franc exchange rate which will be inflated. Given that the decline in EUR / CHF remains moderate, we believe that this night the SNB put his hand to curb the franc's continued growth. So far it seems that the markets do not want to tease the SNB and the rate is kept at an acceptable level. Let's see how to behave in EUR / CHF in the coming hours.

It is unclear what will happen next. First of all, in the near future we should expect the official announcement of the referendum results. Great Britain has a period of uncertainty, which has a negative impact on British assets. News from Northern Ireland say that the majority of Irish people want to remain in the EU, so today will be announced the referendum on the exit of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom. Soon followed by Northern Ireland Scotland, it is only a matter of time. The decision of the British to leave the EU could lead to the disintegration of the United Kingdom.