Monday, December 11, 2017

The yen was the victim of hawk attacks

The yen was the victim of hawk attacks

US Dollar rink swept the Japanese yen after the release of the accompanying statement of the October meeting of the FOMC. Perhaps for someone to rally the US currency and as a surprise in view of the wording of the conservation of a long period of retention of the interest rates and concerns over a slowdown in inflation, but for those who can read between the lines, there was no surprises. Plosser and Fisher, regularly express their disagreement during the previous meetings Open Market Committee, this time kept the proud silence, suggesting that satisfaction with the discussions took place. At the same time among the dissenters swam Kocherlakota, who expressed a desire to maintain loose monetary policy as long as inflation is not securely fixed at around 2%. "Pigeons," the Fed goes in opposition to which until recently attributed their opponents, and if so, then we are waiting for raising the federal funds rate.

"Hawk» FOMC rhetoric leaves no chances yen weakness is to the US dollar should be associated with different vectors of monetary policy if Washington finally got rid of QE, emphatically slamming the door in front of supporters of continuing the program, its Japanese counterpart in full swing. According to Haruhito Kuroda, the local QE is bearing fruit, but the central bank is in the middle of the way to the inflation target of 2%.

Deceleration, which, according to the head of the BoJ, in the near future will be in the range of 1-1.5%, should be associated with the energy market weakness. Investors excite speculation about the regulator concern this circumstance, which, coupled with the possible negative GDP for the third quarter of force to extend the stimulus package. In my opinion, we should not forget that the factor of the peak of the black zolotaokazyvaet positive impact on foreign trade of Japan by reducing the cost value of imports.

Technically, USD / JPY is morally ripe for a major test of resistance near the psychologically important mark of 110, which is the official Tokyo the last time all the forces defending.


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